Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Job in 2018
The unemployment numbers frustrate me and I feel we have to be like this for a long time. Oh.. Light at the end of the tunnel. A new study makes a convincing argument that by 2018, there will be overwhelming number of jobs open because of the mass retirement of baby boomers. And this is of course with no change in the immigration policy or labour law. Just eight more years! At that time, inflation may sky rocket and it is something to worry about. Poor policymakers - there is always something in the economy that spoils their sleep at night.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Recession and the broken Okun's law
In economics, Okun's Law states the relationship between unemployment and GDP gap. It states that for every 1% increase in the unemployment, the GDP will decrease by 2% of its potential GDP. This is an emphirical based on observation rather than theory. So conversely it looks reasonable to assume that for every 2% reduction in GDP gap, a 1% reduction in unemployment can be expected.
But the problem is Okun's law does not always work and especially it is broken in recessions. As a result, we may have a GDP recovery ending the recession and even starting the growth, but the unemployment rate would remain as such in the verge of 10%. It's a bad news, but unfortunately some of the liberal economists that I respect (Bradford DeLong, Nouriel Roubini a.k.a. Dr. Doom) suggest so.
UPDATED ON 1st AUGUST: Paul Krugman predicts jobless recovery with recent GDP figures.
UPDATED FOR CORRECTION: Actually Paul Krugman says Okun's law behaves itself now. My misunderstanding. But the question is, would it during GDP recovery? I don't think so.
But the problem is Okun's law does not always work and especially it is broken in recessions. As a result, we may have a GDP recovery ending the recession and even starting the growth, but the unemployment rate would remain as such in the verge of 10%. It's a bad news, but unfortunately some of the liberal economists that I respect (Bradford DeLong, Nouriel Roubini a.k.a. Dr. Doom) suggest so.
UPDATED ON 1st AUGUST: Paul Krugman predicts jobless recovery with recent GDP figures.
UPDATED FOR CORRECTION: Actually Paul Krugman says Okun's law behaves itself now. My misunderstanding. But the question is, would it during GDP recovery? I don't think so.
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